The selection of a method depends on many factors-the context of the forecast, the relevance and availability of historical data, the degree of accuracy desirable, the time period to be forecast, the cost/ benefit (or value) of the forecast to the company, and the time available for making the analysis. The manager as well as the forecaster has a role to play in technique selection and the better they understand the range of forecasting possibilities, the more likely it is that a company’s forecasting efforts will bear fruit. Each has its special use, and care must be taken to select the correct technique for a particular application. To handle the increasing variety and complexity of managerial forecasting problems, many forecasting techniques have been developed in recent years.
Also included is a rundown of forecasting techniques. Here the authors try to explain the potential of forecasting to managers, focusing special attention on sales forecasting for products of Corning Glass Works as these have matured through the product life cycle. Forecasting can help them deal with these troubles but it can help them more, the more they know about the general principles of forecasting, what it can and cannot do for them currently, and which techniques are suited to their needs of the moment. Sound predictions of demands and trends are no longer luxury items, but a necessity, if managers are to cope with seasonality, sudden changes in demand levels, price-cutting maneuvers of the competition, strikes, and large swings of the economy.
In virtually every decision they make, executives today consider some kind of forecast.
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